﻿ 供需匹配的铁路网趋稳模型
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 同济大学学报(自然科学版)  2018, Vol. 46 Issue (4): 478-483.  DOI: 10.11908/j.issn.0253-374x.2018.04.009 0

### 引用本文

HAN Caihua. Stabilization Model of Railway Network Based on Supply and Demand Matching[J]. Journal of Tongji University (Natural Science), 2018, 46(4): 478-483. DOI: 10.11908/j.issn.0253-374x.2018.04.009.

### 文章历史

Stabilization Model of Railway Network Based on Supply and Demand Matching
HAN Caihua
School of Traffic and Transportation, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing 100044, China
Abstract: From the perspective of railway transportation supply-demand matching, the multi-variable production function model was adopted with the reasonable supply and demand parameters corresponding to the railway network. Referred to the current stabilization status of railway network in the developed countries, the stable model of the railway network was proposed with its revision. On account of the reasonable hypothesis, the stabilization scale of railway network for our whole country, about 0.28 million kilometer, is estimated when we are in high developed countries, which provides a valuable reference for our construction of railway. The scale result is discussed subsequently, which shows that the prediction accuracy of this method is higher in a large geographical area.
Key words: planning of railway network    scale of railway network    supply-demand matching

1 我国铁路运输供需状况

1.1 铁路运输供给概况

1.2 铁路运输需求概况

2 铁路网趋稳模型 2.1 铁路网趋稳规模

2.2 趋稳规模存在的说明

2.3 趋稳模型供需变量选择

 ${\mathit{\varepsilon }_\mathit{i}}\left( \mathit{k} \right){\rm{ = }}\frac{{\mathop {{\rm{min}}}\limits_\mathit{i} \mathop {{\rm{min}}}\limits_\mathit{k} {{\rm{\Delta }}_\mathit{i}}\left( \mathit{k} \right){\rm{ + }}\mathit{\rho }\mathop {{\rm{max}}}\limits_\mathit{i} \mathop {{\rm{max}}}\limits_\mathit{k} {{\rm{\Delta }}_\mathit{i}}\left( \mathit{k} \right)}}{{{{\rm{\Delta }}_\mathit{i}}\left( \mathit{k} \right) + \mathit{\rho }\mathop {{\rm{max}}}\limits_\mathit{i} \mathop {{\rm{max}}}\limits_\mathit{k} {{\rm{\Delta }}_\mathit{i}}\left( \mathit{k} \right)}}$ (1)

2.4 供需变量选取的合理性

2.5 供需匹配的趋稳模型

 $\begin{array}{l} {\mathit{Y}_{\rm{1}}}{\rm{ = 12}}\;{\rm{428}}{\rm{.640}}\;{\rm{886\cdot}}\mathit{X}_1^{{\rm{ - 0}}{\rm{.102}}\;{\rm{856}}}{\rm{\cdot}}\mathit{X}_{\rm{2}}^{{\rm{0}}{\rm{.040}}\;{\rm{744}}}{\rm{\cdot }}\\ \;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mathit{X}_3^{{\rm{2}}{\rm{.202}}\;{\rm{544}}}{\rm{\cdot }}\mathit{X}_4^{{\rm{0}}{\rm{.012}}\;{\rm{815}}}{\rm{\cdot}}\mathit{X}_5^{{\rm{0}}{\rm{.632}}\;{\rm{919}}}{\rm{\cdot}}\mathit{X}_6^{{\rm{ - 0}}{\rm{.065}}\;{\rm{097}}}{\rm{\cdot}}\\ \;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\;\mathit{X}_7^{{\rm{0}}{\rm{.871}}\;{\rm{664}}}{\rm{\cdot}}\mathit{X}_8^{{\rm{ - 2}}{\rm{.961}}\;{\rm{553}}}{\rm{\cdot}}\mathit{X}_9^{{\rm{ - 0}}{\rm{.850}}\;{\rm{416}}} \end{array}$ (2)

 $\mathit{Y}{\rm{ = }}\left( {{\rm{1 + }}\mathit{ \zeta }{\rm{ }}} \right){\mathit{Y}_{\rm{1}}}$ (3)

3 趋稳模型应用示例

3.1 我国铁路网趋稳规模测算

3.2 铁路网趋稳规模数值说明

3.3 趋稳规模的测算结果分析

(1) 运输技术和组织管理的影响.前述结果的假设是参照发达国家现有相对平均的铁路技术和管理水平，随着社会经济的发展，更为先进的铁路技术和组织管理得到运用，使铁路运输技术水平提高，带来单位里程运力的上升，对以增加运输线路来满足运输需求的状况会产生冲击，也对预测结果产生影响，使路网趋稳规模值轻微降低.之所以如此，因为经济社会发展要求更高的铁路运输技术和更为完善的路网布局，运输线路建设和运输技术增强是齐头并进的，完善的路网是运输技术得以灵活运用的前提，因此铁路运输技术的提高，不会很大程度破坏运输线路的稳定增长，对基于运输供需的趋稳规模的影响是轻微的.

(2) 经济形态的影响.历经三次工业革命，各国铁路得到快速发展.在全球实体经济环境下，主要发达国家的铁路已趋于平稳状态，步入全球互联网经济后，各国铁路运输呈现不同变化，发达国家铁路趋稳规模或增或减，但都围绕平稳状态进行较小幅度波动.铁路的实体运输特征在互联网经济形态下仍然不变.在我国经济发展进入互联网经济新形态之后，前述国民经济水平和产业结构的假设参数值仍是相对有效的，即趋稳规模是相对有效的.

4 结语

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